PDN 1.51% $8.18 paladin energy ltd

So let me get this straight..., page-25

  1. JID
    3,568 Posts.
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    Hi Guys,

    I agree Straus. PDN will be one of the major beneficiaries of the inevitable bull market.

    An important point that I have held since investing in this sector, and recently raised by Mike Alkin in his podcast, is that any prospective developer will require debt/ equity funding to bring their project into production.

    Due to the epic bear market, there is NO way this funding will be provided without surity of revenue streams that provides the financiers with a level of certainty that A project will be profitable and have a margin of safety.

    Thus, it is fair to assume that unless developers can enter into LT contracts at c. uS$60 lb there will simply be NO new mine supply entering the market.

    Even those advanced development projects with world class metrics, e.g. NXE, are not anticipated to be in production until 2030.

    Demand growth is locked in due to restarts, new builds and licence extensions.

    Supply from existing mines is locked in to fall and a structural deficit from primary supply to grow.

    Thus, over time, it is a near certainty that U will move towards, and likely exceed, US$60 lb as it is a necessity to incent new mine development.

    For PDN, with two fully built mines waiting for a price recovery, they will be amongst the first to resume supplying the market once pricing reaches acceptable levels.

    Despite the dour history associated with PDN, for new investors this is likely to be a very solid investment over a multi year period.

    Cheers
    John
 
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