You don't recall 2007 to 2009? It was at $150 a barrel and every article was going on about ever dwindling resources. Then the credit crunch came and oil somehow plummets to $35. Then a year later it's back up to $90.
My point is that although I don't know what the price will be anytime soon, I am pretty sure that volatility will always be a big part of this industry, and that the price could go anywhere within a year.