smart risk tolerant money to be made, page-19

Thanks for the reply Commodore

Slightly different angle, using the multipliers below for fun

0.1 Industry std NPV for gas in place
0.2 Probability gas in place from MEO discounted 33% by me.
4Tcf(.9) + 8Tcf(.5) + 12Tcf(.1)]/1.5 Mean recoverable gas
0.1 MOG share of gas (weighted mean recoverable 5.8Tcf)
$3 per Mscf (very low side for gas in WA,or $3Billion per Tcf)


For me the LOW side risked MOG company value alone for this well is $35M (0.1*0.2*5.8*0.1*$3B), current market value $24M.

So we are below par value, significantly, about 50% (22c/share), not too different from your last numbers Commodore.

There are other factors, eg. it will take more than one well to get the reserves estimate, costs for those wells etc. But these costs will get easier to handle, if the well is successful with a high shareprice. If it turns out to be a 12Tcf find, it would be one of the largest in the world. Undeniably attractive for large corporations to just buyout MOG. And of course we are at the bottom of gas price cycle. Uncertainity in the market is a good explanation for the current SP.

So happy with my shareholding.