smart risk tolerant money to be made, page-18

trousergecko you are not making much with the below sense -

"Last try...

Lets pick two more fictious probability points as an example that roughly fit the well distribution eg.
0.7 60TcF
0.2 150TcF"

Artemis has potentially 20Tcf GIIP. MEO and others have applied a potential recovery factor of 60% and come up with a p50 target of 12tcf. In other words were there to be gas in the structure they believe there is a 50% chance that there are at least 12tcf. Concurrent with this they believe there is a 10% chance of 16Tcf or more and a 90% chance of 8tcf or more. The mean recoverable estimate given by MEO is 12Tcf or 2000mmboe (200mmboe on 10% share). The figure I have applied is <150mmboe. It is certainly not overestimating the potential like you are seem confused about.

If it aids your understanding, applying only the MEO numbers of CoS of 0.32 and 10% share of mean potential recoverable gas (and ignoring the potential recoverable condensate of 145mmbo) of 200mmboe then a valuation can be given thus:

0.32(200) = 64mmboe (or 110mmboe including condensate)
@ 2bbl = $128m or 220m = 44c or 75c per share
@ 3bbl = $192m or 330m = 66c or 113c
@ 4bbl = $256m or 440m = 88c or 151c

Again these are risked values.