smart risk tolerant money to be made, page-15

Last try...

Lets pick two more fictious probability points as an example that roughly fit the well distribution eg.
0.7 60TcF
0.2 150TcF

Add those into your calc, by addition, the total risked TCF WOULD increase significantly roughly by 2, when they are just more points off the same probability curve. Again wrong.

If you add an infinite number of points you would end up with infinite risked TCF which is something to hope for, but unlikely.

I had seen they lowered the rate 1.6 for the seismic interp, that is because it is much more unreliable than the industry admits too, so I took a step further for my own risk assessment.


I do agree the SP is undervalued risk wise (I would say between 15c and and 30c is fair value now), and hope to see the well come in so that it goes much higher, good luck Com