Sorry mate but the calc is wrong, I don't want to misled...

Sorry mate but the calc is wrong, I don't want to misled anyone.

If you actually did a monte carlo based on the 3 numbers you would end up with the weighted average as suggested by an earlier poster. Which I don't think is such a bad way of calculating the number.

For me this means the risked values should be brought down by dividing by 1.6 (0.9+0.5+0.1). Then I would query the MEO success probability which has a fudge factor built into it for the seismic indications of gas contact (1.6), I would divided that factor by 1.3.

This brings the worst case risked scenario closer to the current 15c (ie. divide by 2 all your numbers).

Where did you get the barrel equivalents from? I would go a bit higher on this number. I have seen numbers around 0.5-0.60cUS per 1000scfd for gas as a means of companies rapidly valuing the inground value.