Originally posted by Henry Walton
I don't agree with the credit raise being needed or likely, we just shipped $25million worth of product.
Our cash balance as of today would be sitting around $38million, with 27kt more wet tons of production this quarter if we hit guidance thats, a further $25million in dry product, if we sell 20kt of that which we should, we will have $58million by March 31st.
We have $51mill estimated going out, $7mill of that is for fines completion which will go on debt, that leaves us $44mill in out going $58mill in cash to cover it.
With $7mill in product and whatever Ta we manage to produce sth around $3mill.
If all goes to guidance $14mill cash with $10mill in receivables, thats not a situation that demands a 17cent credit raise.
Whilst I'd love no CR, It looks like you have assumed the $13m cash on Dec 31st has been untouched over Jan by assuming $38m ($13m cash + $25m shipment) as of start of Feb. Given the quarterly estimates (-$51m), plus our expected costs per tonne are close to US$650-$700 this quarter, it is likely the $13m has been used up in Jan production alone.
So this reduces your own calculation to $1m cash and $10m recievables, meaning we have trigger our debt covenant.
As I say, I don't see CR as a bad thing if it gets us past the once off hump.