Roskill - leading international metals and minerals consulting...

Roskill - leading international metals and minerals consulting company in feb 2019 says -

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A year-on-year increase in prices has prompted a number of natural #flake#graphite projects to move closer to production. Fine flake prices grew by 21%, averaging US$836/t, with medium flake averaging US$1,005/t, an increase of 29%. Read more here: https://bit.ly/2TKClUS #EV

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Other such info can be found on Benchmark minerals website or this below on Triton's graphite price page Nov 2018 - 

Graphite Industry and Price Update

The following is an update from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

INDUSTRY COMMENTARY:

• Flake graphite prices stable despite seasonal production slowdown and purification cost increases in China.
• Syrah Resources report increased recoveries at Balama project as company confirm latest major offtake; first spherical production announced at Louisiana facility.
• Chinese flake graphite imports continue to rise, climbing above 50,000 tonnes in November (ytd).
• China/US trade war threatens slowdown in domestic industrial demand; industrial orders stable for 2019.
• China’s automobile industry investment regulation change expected to encourage further investment in domestic battery industry; EV battery import tariffs increased.

Flake Graphite Price Commentary:

According to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence:

Flake graphite prices remained stable approaching the end of the year, resisting the typical seasonal response to China’s slowdown in production.

The Benchmark Flake Graphite Index climbed marginally with some sales towards the higher-end of ranges for 94-95% C grades, however industry sources have voiced concerns that lower-value grades could come under renewed pressure moving into the New year as a result of new low-cost supplies entering the market.

In addition to Syrah Resources’ expansions in Mozambique, Madagascar has seen substantial increases in production, with both countries becoming key import markets for Chinese processors throughout 2019.

As a result of this evolving supply structure, the impact of China’s winter slowdown has been marginal, with bigger pressures coming from the ongoing environmental restrictions and input cost rises which are affecting Chinese cost competitiveness.  This pressure is still yet to be reflected in high-purity (96-97%) prices, which have registered gradual decreases since H1 2018. +100 mesh prices have fallen 2% since January with +80 mesh prices down 3.8% ytd (FOB China).

A similar gradual reduction in prices has been seen across larger flake prices, which peaked in the middle of the year, with +50 mesh prices down 1.2% and 2.4% on average for 94-95% C and 96-07% C grades respectively.

Very tough commodity markets with Trade wars, economic problems and general world Armageddon predictions. I agree with Capraise that Graphite is required in bulk going forward but to what levels it will underpin new mines or mine increases is anyone's guess. Graphite is very difficult to gather info present and past mainly due to Chinese controlling the market and customers and suppliers mainly sorting grade and price behind closed doors. However both the research companies above are doing a great job to supply info even if they slightly contradict each other. I tend to follow benchmark minerals more as they do seem to be digging deep into the market.

Certainly EV's and thus battery minerals are now center, left and right on every media channel you look. But even this is small beer for Triton as they have a foot in this camp but also have another size 13 shoe in the expandable graphite market. Which is very much under the radar but more gives much higher prices per tonne than battery grades do that every man and dog is chasing.

Triton has Chinese shareholders and BOD that are now under water on SP and one would think are working hard to make this play go into production as planned.       

I know PC has been in in Mozambique over the last week or so - lets hope it is fine tuning the details of licencing and finance. As a bean counter lets also hope he can secure set prices for sales, build and running costs. Then Triton can look forward to supplying a growth sector and other potentially then bringing larger 100% owned projects online while being a profitable company.

Good luck all holders.

CM