showdown looms, page-11

Just going through bits and pieces to get more ammo for the up and coming AGM when something that Auto said about ROC's assets being talked down to make HZN's assets look more attractive hit me smack in the face.

What is wrong with this picture?

Granted, there is a disclaimer that this graph cannot be taken as an absolute prediction of future production because of various factors, but, the inference is clear...ROC's oil production tapers off dramatically and basically halves from 2014 to 2019 whereas HZN has a significant jump and dwarfs ROC's from 2020 on tha back of the PNG gas production. Looks pretty convincing that ROC have a problem going forward, BUT, where is ROC's phase 2 Malaysian production represented? ROC state that they will doing studies for at least 2 years on the phase 2 project before any development so the earliest one would expect production starting would be 2017/2018. The phase 1 production is stable at 5000BOPD plus 8mmcfgpd ( the gas production is pictured)....there has been no mention of the potential rate of phase 2 production but ROC have stated that the investment needed is of a magnitude that they would consider selling down some of the project... so we have a big project on our hands....wouldn't you expect to see a ramp up of ROC's oil production to a fairly significant level sometime late in this decade?

I suggest that the graph takes into account HZN's production of 2c gas , but does NOT include production of Malaysian phase 2 oil, which IMO would be at least hitting somewhere at 10000+ BOPD. Even taking into consideration the natural decline of Beibu, Zhao Dong, Cliff Head etc, post 2019, IMO, the orange part of the graph representing ROC's oil production, should be at least, at a level similar to the 2015 peak, with a fairly shallow decline.

I suggest this is a clear example of what Auto was saying in regards to ROC's assets being talked down vs the opposite for HZN to argue in favour of the merger

Cheers

Dan