The presentation is a bit confusing - but that is not why I...

The presentation is a bit confusing - but that is not why I posted it.

The presentation is dated March 2013 and is by SKK Migas about the PSC contract with EEES. SKK Migas is the regulator for upstream gas. SKK Migas has contracted with EEES with respect to the Sengkang PSC. SKK Migas does not regulate electricity generation (PLN has the monopoly on distribution) nor does it regulate LNG sales.

When the EWC announced that PTES amended the PPA with PLN in 11/2012 - EWC did not disclose a change to the PSC between EEES/Pertamina and SKK Migas (still BP Migas at the time)required to support the expansion. So perhaps the 2004 back to back amendments between BP Migas/EEES/PERTAMINA, and PTES/PERTAMINA cover increased gas sales to PTES (???)

I have found no reference anywhere to an agreement for the PSC to sell gas to SSLNG.

There is no reference to the POD in 6/2011 for the WASAMBO field.

And this is why I posted the article. I think the tables at the end of the presentation are the numbers given by EWC to BP Migas supporting the POD for WASAMBO. In fact the 129 mmscfs are close to the 128 mmscfs P1 reserves for Walanga. The price as noted is ballpark at $4.50 per mmscf. The tables then break down the gross revenue into the first trache petroleum (FTP), equity to be shared (ETBS), cost recovery (limited at $113m vs $139m spent), and tax. The NPV of the development of walanga ranges from -$3m on their pessimistic case (10% discount rate) to $108m on the optimistic case. I can not tell what drives the pessimistic/base/optimistic cases.

Now this is important - and as important the power situation - because a shortfall of power generated means less gas is produced, which means the profitability of the gas fields is less. It seems from the last disclosure, that the PPA has a capacity charge. So in an over supplied electricity market, if the sengkang plant does not get dispatched then the capacity factor is paid, but the gas is not produced thus a double whammy on profitability - no profit on electricity not produced, and no profit on the gas (however leaves more gas for LNG).

As an aside, while looking for the Kampung Baru PSC information I found some stuff on the bone bay PSC that in 2011 EWC disclosed a stake. It appears to be a psc that Marathon was farming out http://www.seapex.org/farmout_files/2545_mibbl_bonebay.pdf)





which owns the PSC

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