Hi @radx Short answer re copper.... nup, not concerned in the...

Hi @radx

Short answer re copper.... nup, not concerned in the least.

Long answer:-

The current consensus opinion is.... we are heading for a debt crisis.. I think that is correct.
The Fed tightening is reversing the asset price growth, reducing liquidity and the once free money is now becoming debt. The trade war is clearly hurting World trade and undermining growth. So... markets are reflecting this.

But there is more going on.

Politically we are seeing a re-balance of power. The weight of money was already shifting to Asia [mostly China]... this environment is going to accelerate it. China is forging new economic ties with Russia, the Middle East and [recently reported] it is mending fences with India. It is all over Africa like a rash. In short it is replacing its reliance on the US.

The $US ... has it already peaked? I think so. What happens when it starts to lose value? IMO... it will offset the liquidity problem faced by non-US debtors currently scrambling to meet their $US denominated debts. I think there can be no disputing the $US is over-valued... it holds onto that high valuation only because it is the reserve currency. That function is slowly eroding. If there is a steep decline in the $US then the 'debt crisis' will migrate to the US with a real vengeance. If that does happen [which I think it will, the only question in my mind is will it be a quick transition or something which plays out over several years].... the China option is where everybody is going to head for, if only to get out of harms way.

The over-riding context is Global warming and the increasing urgency for a meaningful response. In that, there is no other choice but to shift to a non fossil fuel economy. That is a process which is going to take the  next 50 years to complete. Copper is the eye of the storm....regardless of the economic upheavals that come along.

In the next few years, I see China becoming the economic centre and everybody will be orbiting it.