Originally posted by Dazedandconfused
If this 'trade truce' has some real substance then the Yuan should at least stop dropping. The gradual devaluation of the Yuan over recent months has been associated with the fall in the price of gold. [I have read analysis why this is so but I have been completely unable to follow the logic... but if that analysis is correct then we should see the PoG rise on this].
The truce is being presented as a win for Trump. Can't see it that way myself. I consider his threat of 25% is a bluff. It was supposed to force China into concessions.... instead Trump has backed down as I see it.... what is being reported as China's concessions are vague 'licks and promises'. China will negotiate on the US's legitimate concerns? [who defines what is legitimate?] China will buy substantially more farm product... that's probably only because they need to. But in the next 3 months I am willing to wager they will be seeking as many alternative sources as they can [like the deal they just did with Russia to source pig meat].
China is doing the same thing to the US that we in Oz see all the time in their dealings with many of our companies... sign up some sort of deal then endlessly procrastinate, all the while trying to move the goalposts in their favour.
In my opinion, all that has actually happened is China has won another 3 months to further their attempts to circumvent 'SWIFT' and continue to 'de-dollerise'. When the next round of negotiations have to be called China will be in a stronger position than this time. On top of that Trump is getting into deeper political strife back home... his position will likely be weaker.
Supports my view expressed in my previous post that the Chinese are far more business savvy than the Americans. My post was definitely not intended to be anti American, I have considerable investment in the US and Canada and admire their achievements. Only saying that are always wasteful with money, however they do have a legitimate claim to be the richest for now. I do wonder if they can still maintain their lead by 2050.
(20min delay)
