This is my interpretation and opinion with the data that is being presented.
I believe because globalisation is so wide spread now that all markets are interlinks more than they've ever been.
Using Germany's chart again and with 3 other major indexes overlaid.
US500 - Purple
ASX200 - Red
Nikkei 225 - Blue
We can see that although they're all on slightly different paths, they usually all do follow the main movements caused from supply and demand in the overall world economy.
This is because the stock market is a forward/future projecting machine, its valuations are based on future/potential earnings not what is currently being earned..
When data comes out or actual demand is down the market will likely reflect this, as can been seen above.
Note, these movements in the chart are far from scale but give a good representation of how globalisation impacts all markets significantly now, some are impacted more than others.
For example,
Australia's market is going to be affected more if China's market is down than opposed to say Russia's market.
Russia is still a trading/business partner to Australia but it is by no means at the same level as China is.
So to answer your question,
I see Australia's market falling a lot further as China's economy (demand) continues to weaken. The US (Our second biggest trading partner) will also have an impact on Australia as they decline but not to the extent that China's will on our economy/stock market.
I'm in 2 minds whether Australia will fare better than everyone else again in the GFC 2.0...
Short to medium term I see declines for the next 3-12 months (at least) as world wide demand for products (spending) decreases.
Being a heavily dependant resource based economy is a pretty big negative for Australia too.
Although once interest rates start being lowered in a meaningful way it should re-inflated asset/commodity prices to some degree but I'm not sure if the 'demand' will be there as the currencies are devalued.
(Everything I've presented here and posted lately represents a very strong bullish case for Gold btw..)
Australia also has a massive property bubble that looks set to pop.
I tried having a debate with a few friends (property owners) that this is likely a bubble, they weren't even open to the idea haha, for them prices always go up....
If we think about supply and demand and that all markets are related then either the property value needs to catch up to price or price needs to fall down to meet value, with a bit of overshooting in each direction (Greed/Fear)
Who's going to be able to afford the current house prices if we go into a downturn/recession as this will mean job losses, lower pay, less spending...
What will happen when people can't afford their mortgage repayments and need to sell their properties but can't because everyone else is also selling...
Australian property looks set for a mini GFC houses crash like the US had.
The RBA said the other week that intends to lower interest rates and possibly use QE next year...
Another central bank telling you to 'Short' it's economy and currency...
(20min delay)
