Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 11-13 Jan, page-25

Can't really argue against any of that Radxsy,

I would suggest few here are bulls (I'm not),

I don't short or seek exposure to leverage (warrants, options etc and spreads too complex by half)

I am purely time dependent model realisation with trade life my risk discipline or anomoly. (with bit of sector momentum if real)

So if DOW is 22,000 in say 3 months I am not that concerned I see my model as valid.

I agree the DOW is heavily overbought, has been for years although not to sure about others.

The ASX for instance is sitting on historical PE's, the Chinese index is whatever the 'party' wants it to be, I totally ignore it.

So the question I ask myself is what are the chances of liquidity being totally withdrawn from the market over next 3 mths (say DOW 15,000) against say more of the same with DOW heading for 22k?

Both are possible but one more probable in low inflation, interest rate enviroment, QT is a function of fear, as soon as it appears the other will disappear and a global recession while modelled still very much just ink on paper.

I'm not a sophisicated investor (apparently I have that label with comsec) and I do not like to stuff around with things I do not totally understand, so for me its steady as it goes.

25% long, 75% cash, model phase dependent and most important expectations modest, not looking at capital accumulation just budget expenses.

BTW still long DCN and noticed gold holding up well.

Have a strong feminine side apparently so could have a completely different view in 5 secs but as of now going with above.