Yes, I see the Fed eventually going back to QE but I don't see that happening soon, at least not until mid to late 2019 or unless there's a massive market decline before then..
The recent strong jobs figures could also mean they might raise rates again in March, which I don't think the stock market would appreciate much..
Most if not all markets/trade are related because of globalization, some more than others.
For example our market/economy would be more closely related and correlated with NZ's than say South Africa's.
This is because NZ is a bigger trading partner so more companies on our exchanges would be purchasing products from each other.
The majority of the countries/markets/economies have been declining since the start of the year.
The US has pushed on a bit longer than everyone else thanks to the massive tax cuts and a couple of factors like the being the world reserve currency and the last man/market standing...
The US can't possibly be expected to go it alone and continue up if the rest of the world is crashing..
This is simply because so many companies around the world are related and trade with one another.
We all buy products from each other, some countries/companies are more related than others.
The above is why I find it hard to see 1 countries economy can survive/thrive when the rest of the world is crashing/declining..
We are also at peak or past peak in the business/economic cycle.
Just like the expansions cycles feed upon themselves then so do the contractions cycles, in the form of less spending, less demand.
I would imagine that if just 1 central bank announced QE/easing monetary policy it would have little impact on the global economy, all that would likely do is just create even more oversupply...
So I believe in order to stop this decline or at least 'prop it back up' there will need to be another global synchronised central bank QE/stimulus package again.
Will all central banks act quickly enough and all at the same time?
Or will they need to see a massive amount of pain (market decline) first before they decide they all need to work together again??
I'm also seeing more and more reports coming out that China is fudging their economic data and although it is quite bad now, it could actually be a lot worse than what's being reported..
China is Australia biggest trading partner that accounts for over 1/3 of all trade so China will need to do something drastic in 2019 if Australia hopes to avoid a recession...
There is also the case for the massive amounts of corporate, government and household debt...
This may not have ever been a problem in the previous 10 year boom/bull cycle as profits/spending/repayments could always service that debt.
What happens if profits start to decline and now these companies can't service that debt and/or go bankrupt...?
What happens if people stop spending as much or they can't service their own debt from job or pay cuts?
What would that do to asset prices and does this create even more oversupply?
What if governments can't service their debts or budget allocations from falling taxes?
What if this cycle continues to feed upon itself?
What's stopping this cycle from not feeding upon itself after reaching a peak in the economic/business cycle in Q3 2018???
"Only when the tide has gone out do you discover who's been swimming naked"
I think the above is where Warren Buffet's quote comes from..
As for the move into Gold, well it makes sense if the overall equity market is declining, investors will still be looking for returns as stocks fall and currencies are devalued.
What other asset class goes up when this is happening? (Gold & Government Bonds)
I dunno, maybe I'm just looking at it wrong but it seems a lot harder to be bullish than bearish...
Not sure if that answered your question or if that is what you were asking haha but I tried my best to show you what I see.
I started shorting indexes and buying bonds again tonight.
Also put shorts on APT & CBA and also bought back into some Gold/Gold stocks today, I had just planned to average back in on the Gold stocks as it's pretty hard to pick a bottom or top lately.
I'll see tomorrow morning if that was the right decision..
(20min delay)
