I'm bearish because of what the markets are showing, the...

I'm bearish because of what the markets are showing, the continued weak economic data and past history of similar events.
There is no wishing, hoping, greed or fear sentiment in my thinking, just like there wasn't before when the DOW was 1,000 points higher...


The indicators above that I use are telling me what is happening in the economy/market, I base my investment decisions off that, no biases, it is data dependant.
So far they have been correct as have my investment decisions, nothing has materially changed in these indicators to suggest I should become 'bullish', when they do, I will.


I agree with almost everything in that link, I think the author and I have similar thoughts.

I'm not as confident as you are that the Fed will step in early enough to re-stimulate the economy, as the economic indicators they are using are mostly lagging indicators.
Namely - low unemployment (peaks at very end of a cycle) and not looking at the markets (commodities) to see that inflation is definitely not increasing.


If they looked at more forward looking indicators then they probably wouldn't of raised rates in December...
The market seemed to think they shouldn't have anyways..


What was the purpose of raising in December...?

- World wide growth was declining,
- The US stock markets were declining,
- The rest of the world's economies were declining,
- Commodity prices/inflation were declining,
- Wage growth was up, low unemployment (peak cycle....)


I wonder if they plan on raising interest rates and continuing QT because of strong wage growth and unemployment until they cause a recession themselves..?
They still don't seem to seem to think that QT has any impact on the markets now so I'm not holding out much hope that they will use QE at the right time when it's actually needed..


Based on the above, I'm not too confident that the Fed will be reactive enough in time just like they seemed to have 'missed' what the market has been telling them now.
Eventually they will do something but probably not at the time when we really could of used it...


The DOW declined around 19.5% from its peak,
The NASDAQ down 23.5% from its peak.
They are now down 13% & 17% respectively, which is quite a significant and quick drop in supposed earnings I might add...

Who's to say that this market decline and further drop in earnings won't continue..?