Dunno about 5%.. I'm always a pessimistic, so I wouldn't be surprised to see profit taking today. I'm in for the medium term anyway. Whenever I day trade (or 3 day trade) a major, I always end up looking back 3 months later and thinking 'why didn't I just leave my cash there?!'. The Vale scenario put a fire under FMG - add to that the fact that TA wise, FMG had already began a breakout, and hopefully you get a lovely, consistent sp incline over the next month or so. And check out yesterday's volume! 70million shares traded - that's the most shares traded on the daily since April 2015 when the sp was $2.13. Also - as I mentioned yesterday, one major broker updated FMG to a buy the day before yesteday, then yesterday Goldman's (the dorks) finally took off their sell recommendation, and updated guidance (Commsec has the full report). Seems FMG's poorer grade ore will be in demand for a while because Vale has shut all it's Brazilian production sites with dams - that's dozens of mines not doing anything. So hopefully this is a perfect storm type scenario - even if Morningstar (yawn) have FMG as overvalued. (note: the same Monrningstar that said a fair value of MYX was $1.20 while it traded at 60c for almost 12 months. They probably claim victory because eventually it got to that price, but even a broken clock etc etc).
I'm more interested to see what happens with AVZ. I'm set to lose a good 10k, but I'm surprisingly not annoyed (seemed like a good punt back when prices crashed to 8c but such is life). 10k is almost worth the constant unfolding drama: 'Director sells half his stake, the Chinese look interested, but, oh no, the lithium price has crashed... omg, more amazing intecept results and a resource bigger than anyone could imagine! SUDDENLY - DRC elections.. will the place erupt into civil war? Almost.. phew, close one. THEN - Dun DUn DAHH - Cap raise with no set price, to be determined in 5 days before placement at a 20% VWAP discount! WHAT?! The final blow comes - a balance sheet... $4.5 mil spend over 4 months with only 5 mil remaining!?' - join us next time, probably tomorrow, when another amazing twist in the AVZ saga (and the greatest lesson junior explorer investors in companies in places like the DRC will ever get) comes out of nowhere. I expect something like: 'Company Update: South Africa Invades the Congo'
(20min delay)
