Hi guys,
Been a while and its nice to see ongoing contributions and healthy discussions as always - thanks colonialcousin and ammie...also good to see Freehold back again.
I'll contribute my bit as I see some discussion about goldies. Overall gold its been the strongest sector I've noticed lately for commodities. Tech/biotech has done well too with IPO's EX1, EMV, TYM, SPT all making bags lately...and SMX if we rewind back a little further.
With all these recent IPO performers, essentially focus on SPT churning through $35M over last two days alot of wealth has been created for risk takers, which should mark the start of a trickle down I expect and increase risk taking situation. Overall market seems far healthier with higher lows and higher highs finally coming into place. Right now its likely pullback territory and this next PB/Consol will set the scene for the sentiment being a genuine turn around.
Unfortunately don't have any macro charts to post today but perhaps will throw that down later.
Back to focus which is gold;
1. Bunch of near-term producers/current small producers.
Enterprised Value updated for today's prices however does not include data from recent quarterlies released.
WAF tbh shouldn't be on this list and is included in the list below. Bunch of columns hidden to fit it all on the screen.
2. As for pure gold developers; this list a bit more details.
All figures are in AUD, Columns with NOO = Net of Ownership, Assumed gold price of $1700, Exchange rate of 1AUD = 1.4USD, NPV discount of 8%. Bunch of columns hidden to fit it all on the screen, also colour coordinated (Green being favourable). NPV takes in average distributed cashflow unless specific year to year mine plan has been provided.
Hopefully its readable, likely will need to right click the image and click "open image in new tab" and it'll allow a zoom in.
Personally what I like?
Out of developers:
EAR - its a serious contender at $78M EV, great CAPEX, good stage 1 AISC. Downside however is NPV is quite low (Assuming 1600 gold price), now with higher gold prices NPV does look good for stage 1, but issue then becomes Stage 2 AISC is $1273. Regardless, if gold price can sustain these levels RvR is decent.
WAF - Simply AISC is the best, I had to double check if it was in USD. But its AUD $771/oz. Massive project and NPV. CAPEX is high but its fully funded. Bit of lead time till production EV trading 20% of NPV.
VEC - One of the riskier ones, figures were taken from an Anglo DFS I dug up. EV/NPV is the top notch trading at 13%, however the additional risk you are taking is there is no JORC compliant DFS. Which means a) Will CAPEX remain the same (and its already high as it is), b) will AISC remain the same...if these can remain consistent with Anglo should do well. Great expansion potential aswell.
GPR - You will notice its highlighted. Simply cause I have to dig deeper myself soon. Its either stupid cheap or something is off?
I understand GPR grade is low for their deposit but $19M EV, DFS done, solid NPV, AISC of 1033, EV/NPV under 10%. Asset seems good but looks like management may not be proactive and lacks bit of promotion.
Out of producers:
RMS - Picked out a while ago and charts an absolute cracker now. They're looking for 205kozpa production so trading 3.2 EV/Marginal Profit, with mine life extension potential.
PRU - Trading 3.8 EV/Marginal profit, AISC low, good mine life and doesn't include their Yaoure project which will double their cashflow.
GCY - Also worth a a look imo.
Some others I have to add into the producers list in near future, TRY, KRM, SUM, AGD, BDR, MML, RND, MMG, WWI, BLK.
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Been a while since I've dumped charts of individual stocks just trying to get back into the rhythm.
Few older charts which have had pops over last two days.
RMS: Cracker volume coming in as it pushes through recent highs.
SFG:
It popped from base but close was weak and smacked down. So back to drawing board and watch how it behaves from here with supply lingering.
WGX:
Was watching for a breakout and its gotten there on some very significant volume through the base. See if it can continue this push looks like big money involved.
BAL:
Noticed this after a very good trader posted it on twitter and its been on high watch, today it popped on good volume from a good base so should also have a continuation.
EAR:
Forming a base here at support, some strange volume being soaked up hard to tell if its accumulation or distribution but on high watch to reveal direction.
Some current Charts added from volume pick ups today:
CVN:
Push up from base, but could use more volume.
EXU:
Subject to takeover from RMS, pushing record highs on volume here.
GLN: Probably the only lithium company looking any good. Nice volume entering heading towards resistance. PLS also looks a bit climatic, high volume today but complete reversal, might have a quick bounce.
DRM: Very well structured trend and move, last two days of volume have been strong heading into resistance. Perhaps one more higher low?
Cheers have a good one
(20min delay)
