First I would like to say that the XAO forum is so much a better...

First I would like to say that the XAO forum is so much a better place to inhabit than my former abode the XJO. I could compare it best by saying it feels very uncomfortable swimming with bull sharks, but if you are swimming with dolphins you can feel that the oceans are great to share with those companions.

Firstly Diver Dan :

Thanks for acknowledging the comments on Trade War posturing. I don't believe it is just for the media. You need to look deeper into who Trump is. He is a business man who loves to make deals, and I sincerely believe he is in it for American people primarily. Remember he announced at his election that he would not take the salary.

Don't scuba any more, advancing age and other interests such as Lawn Bowls. Agree that 5 minutes decompression stop is a very vulnerable part of your dive. Loved diving in exotic destinations; Best were Maldives, Barrier Reef close to Lizard Island, Ningaloo Reef OK but inferior to the first 2 mentioned.

 Radx.    Coming from a strong sciences background it was normal practice to read someone else's analysis then thinking I will need to test that theory before I can believe that.

Financial journos have often said that strength of equities and T-bond yields correlate inversely. The argument is simple; an investor will decide on the basis of returns (including growth), and safety, where to park his/her money.  If yields are high then logic would say don't risk you money in equities. It makes sense, and I do not know what happens if yields blow out to very large numbers, however with smaller percentages typical of the last 10 years in the US, there seems no inverse correlation. 

As far as everyone wanting to be long, that depends on what instruments you are comfortable using. In the old days investors bought stocks and made money when the market went up, and lost money when it went down. For retail investors that was the sum of it. Now it is a completely evolved world of market instruments; if you comfortable shorting by options, CFDs inverse ETFs and other devices, you are no longer married to the bull side of the markets.

As far as going into a bear market; my view is Australia 95% certainty - US about 75% certainty. Anyone want to make a prediction?