Short Term Trading Week Starting: 17 Dec, page-87

Early Update

Of the standouts today we have an SPX that is technically oversold with NYMO nearing its historically low range and rolling SPX TICK flat to up. We have sinking USD index that has fallen below the 50 and moving toward the 100 day. We have correspondingly much higher gold and Yen and we have Treasuries giving back some of yesterday's gains. Crude futures settled down -4.75% while the electronic session GCG19 is now consolidating a post settlement high of 1270.30.

There was also a big spike in P/C ratio. A consensus SPX bottom would be around 2400, but if short term bulls are to act on that level, the touch and go would be rapid and hard to get on to. Major hedge for Friday is SPX 2450. The other thing we have is a quarterly expirations tomorrow - something many do not like to trade.

ESH19 futures profile was balanced overnight and positioning was sort of neutral. The single print drop to 2441.25 looks like it represents forced liquidation selling below 2465. The NYSY MOC will be very interesting today. As of this note we have -1B to sell but that will probably flip. Some would not be short here overnight and will not regret not being short even if we test 2400. Sounds perverse, I know, but there is short in the hole and then there is kamikaze trading. That last bit of selling was highly forced and emotional.