Specifically the inflation data. But... one wonders how the Fed estimates the employment situation. Officially the US economy is growing with low unemployment... but critics point to the participation rate, the full time vs part time ratio, the underemployment etc. as indicating a quite different situation. These are all well worn debates.... and people take sides. I don't follow things as closely as I once did... it tires me out and my rejuvenating naps take much longer to work their magic nowadays.
Early in his Presidency, Trump was one of the reasons I enjoyed waking up.... what has the loony been up to while I slept? All very entertaining. But that's worn thin. @Diver Dan has pinpointed the real state of play in his post above....the Fed is trying to reduce its balance sheet and it is retreating from supporting asset prices. They are also not supporting the madness which is the tariff policy/trade war. I suspect there is a growing resistance to Trump and his policies ....but before it resolves I can only imagine increased volatility and increased chaos for at least another 12 months.
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Specifically the inflation data. But... one wonders how the Fed...
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