US Mid Session Update ES Futures overnight positioning was net...

US Mid Session Update

ES Futures overnight positioning was net long going into the regular hours trading session here, with about 27 hours to go until the FOMC rate decision. If you click that futures link you'll get a closer view of what an overnight profile looks like. So far it looks like it's setting up for a balancing day in the absence of news and in anticipation of tomorrow's main event. Yesterday's point of control is 2575.50, but that is a light point of control because the volume is so scattered over yesterday's very broad ES action. Keep in mind yesterday’s MOC market imbalance large sell and the poor, elongated structure of the ESH19 RTH profile. That shows desperation.

There are a few items this morning worth having a laugh at. This is one of them -- an admonition from you-know-who to the FOMC going into Wednesday's momentous rate decision. As you know, it is the medium term plan rather than the rate hike itself that has risk asset traders most concerned; great attention will be given to what the Committee has to say about their intentions for 2019. For most participants, it seems that rate hike is priced in and that a failure to come good on that expectation would cause fear. Better that they soft-pedal the 2019 story, and tell the market that they are data dependent and have no concrete plans. That's what the bulls are wishing for. Either way, it promises to be quite an event. Initial reactions to both the rate notice at 14:00 and the press conference that comes after it could throw equities, currencies and debt all over the place. If the FOMC makes a forthright -if temporary - capitulation or bow to global growth/ rick asset stability and avoids too much of the ECB style ambiguity, participants will be less likely to question initial moves. If ambiguity makes an appearance in the press conference and a 24 hour digestion period is called for, participants will parse the initial moves and look to Thursday for meaningful follow-through.