fwiw... I think the US Fed has no choice... they must raise...

fwiw...

I think the US Fed has no choice... they must raise rates.
My reasons for thinking so:-
In the context of tariffs, a weaker $US is much worse than a strong $US. The tariffs are increasing inflation in the US... if the Fed allows the $US to weaken that magnifies the effect.
The US is running a major [record?] deficit due to tax cuts/increased Govt spending... the higher interest rate will be required to keep short term bonds attractive. I believe that will continue into next year... the US debt problem is at the heart of it... raising rates won't cure the problem but it does buy more time. [In this regard I think the US is far more likely to reverse course on the trade war than is China... because I think it is hurting the US much more]

The casualties will be asset prices, commodities and markets. The dreaded 'inverted yield curve' is tomorrow's problem... looks very likely it will happen.... and when it does things get very serious. But the inflation/debt problem is real and more urgent....imo.

The effect for OZ is it will apply greater funding costs for our banks... which will exacerbate their disinclination to lend at the moment.

As far as China is concerned... the 'Belt and Road' might slow down a bit but they are 100% committed to it. Commodity prices might come under pressure but demand will remain strong...imo.