Short Term Trading Week Starting: 11 Feb, page-89

US Closing Update

Happy Friday everyone,

US Indices on Thursday's close: SPX: (-0.27%), NDX: (+0.09%), Dow: (-0.41%) and RUT: (+0.14%)

This was a weird day and here are the basics. Two intraday liquidation breaks and dip-buys on consecutive days with 2750 at the heart of the process and 2730 as support leaves Friday a question mark as far as the previous bull targets of 2760 and 2775. Sometimes you can get a feeling for the probabilities and other times you draw a blank. Levels will become more apparent in the Friday pre-market session. Interestingly, the transport sector etf got through its major downtrend. US treasuries and gold were bid higher after the retail sales data - the debate over that number has participants questioning the influence of the government shut down and the stock market swoon that preceded January's run. SPX closed at 2745.73.

ES futures contract was higher overnight but dropped to the low end of trade and 2730.25 after US Retail Sales came in the weakest since 2009. Things repaired slowly after 10:00 ET and ES made a high of 2758.25 before pulling back to hover at the 2750 area as traders wait for word on both the state of the government funding situation and the China trade talks. On the former issue the president is expected to sign the spending bill but also said to be ready to declare some sort of emergency over the border situation -- so that his supporters will stay calm. ES is currently trading at 2743.75.

BBG reported that there were broad and unresolved differences between China and the USA vis trade.

Thursday's Closing Internals: NYSE A-D lines: +224. NYSE breadth: +1.13:1 and NASD breadth:+1.57:1. NYSE cumulative TICK: muted but positive and flattening on the close. TRIN: 1.04.
NYSE MOC: At the reveal there was a +900M buy imbalance which met with some down ticks and ended at +115M to buy. SPX volume: 2.12B. SPX composite volume: +0.39%. NYSE composite volume: +4.28% and NYSE total volume: +15.77%. Implied Volatility: VIX: 16.24 or +3.77%, VXH19: 17.03 or +1.95% and VXJ19: 17.11 or +1.69%. NYMO is stalled out about where it left off last time.