Originally posted by radx
US500 - Daily Chart
Bulls seem to be struggling here with 3 small red candles, bears seem to be just waiting for a reason to send it lower.
All the the best' Trump/Trade War' agreement tweets seem to be having zero impact on the market now...
Maybe the economic data doesn't care or support what Trump tweets..?
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Big economic data out in the US tonight, also Manufacturing PMI's for EU & Germany as well.
The data can be taken both ways.
- Strong/stable numbers could give the Fed reason to think they've hit equilibrium and may not be as 'dovish' as traders would like.
- Declining numbers is obviously bearish for the economy and would give good reason for the Fed to continue it's strong dovish tone, this is if you 'think'/hope a pause in rate hikes would automatically stimulate growth and take the stock market to new highs...
ECB's Draghi lowers growth and inflation forecasts again...
The economic data is/has been supportive of this for quite some time, having peaked way back in December last year.
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Short - European markets on any weakness in data.
Aye all very interesting, and you make a good point in that most of the time data can be "spun" to suit ones of agenda or viewpoint. Both bears and bulls could take positives from either situation if they are one eyed enough haha.
I still maintain my stance that with the significant issue that is the "Tariff/Trade War", Neither bear nor bull can act without fear as this situation can swing violently in either direction very quickly. It already appears to be having an effect on the underlying performance of some US companies (I recall particularly some hit by the tariffs on steel imports), and still not clear when or if there will be a resolution (although there does appear to be renewed vigor to find a resolution sooner rather than later).
I do think we have seen "peak growth" in the US but that need not spell disaster, these things fluctuate, and I think the peak was too much of a peak if if look at what has happened to the markets. Ran too hot for too long, and this year it has unraveled somewhat. But the forthcoming economic data is going to be interesting, but in the scheme of things I am hard pressed to say it will lead to movements with conviction in any direction. But I do think the situation is quite fragile, and it think it is going to be a fair bit easier for the US markets to capitulate further to the downside than roar back up to the highs, and I can find more reasons to have a bearish outlook for 2019 than a bullish one right now.
(20min delay)
