TA is ultimately reactive to the underlying fundamentals.
What would the fundamentals be that can justify share prices and market indexes going higher???
- "Santa Claus Rally...."
Fundamentals for share prices and market indexes going lower,
- Decline in world growth
- Decline in manufacturing and production
- Decline in consumer spending
- Decline in corporate profits
Pretty easy to see that it will go lower from here, with the occasional news driven bounce..
All indexes are heavily oversold right now so a further big fall from here would need a substantial "bad news" driven story to be able to send sentiment and share prices lower..
Look at the bounces from the previous 2 touches of that support area.
How quickly did they bounce?
Price has struggled to even stay above that support line on the 3rd attempt...
That's a bit telling, almost as if price is just waiting there for the next "bad news" story so it can go down further.
I don't discount a short term "good news" driven spike up here either but all this will be is another perfect shorting opportunity just like the last 3 and then that should give us the momentum from all the new longs to go lower.