Short term - knowledge library 1.0 (This thread is READ ONLY.... No unauthorised Posts), page-61

Smoke Signals​

UmiTrader
Date: 10/06/16
Time: 18:28:56
Post #: 18010041

One indication that a stock is garnering interest is when posters you know and respect start turning up on the thread as holders with something to say.

For the specs, where institutions don't really play much, HotCopper is a microcosm of the market. In certain cases, not all mind you, you can observe the interest building or fading.

In my opinion this is happening now with MDR. Some excellent posts today. I already hold, but bought a small amount more today, increasing my position by about 10%. I am doing this to consciously avoid a tendency of mine to sell winners too early. I think MDR has potential to get to be a $100 million market cap company, or around 15c so I want to be buying and not succumbing to my base instinct to bank a profit. I want to avoid my mistake buying EMC at 22c then selling half at 34c.


Freehold
Date: 10/06/16
Time: 19:01:54
Post #: 18010285

So Exit Strategies...

Well heres the bad news "there is no perfect Exit Signal , strategy or algorithm that works every time" ... and trust me Ive calc'ed 100's I use a suite of strategies ... But perhaps the simplist and one of the most effective is...

Draw straight edge trendlines Connect either 3 points on high low or Close or draw a line that encompasses the majority of trading action (ie straight edge Trend Channels) and sell when it crosses or closes either above or below them... Simple and very effective.

Whats not so important is the exact placing of said trendlines... What more important is you must act when they are crossed ... that in my mind is the key "you must take action".


bond00what
Date: 10/06/16
Time: 22:36:40
Post #: 18011412

ive been following markets for a while.... i think one of the BIGGEST smoke signals is your gut instinct.

positive or negative sentiment, it doesnt matter, your subconscious gut instinct has been training in the background and when it speaks to you, you need to learn and listen.

the number of times i've held off entering a trade or have exited a trade early because "something" doesn't feel right... and been right, is amazing. Its hard to put a finger on but everyone knows this feeling. Just need to listen to it.

Could be numbers / timeline doesnt add up, constant delays or missed targets, directors paying themselves premiums when the company isn't doing much, alot of talk or new interest in a product thats been around for a while... conversely on the positive side: mentions in an article or two, buying volume with no announcement, hiring of staff / promotions out of the blue...

its just a feeling but learn to listen to it !

right now its telling me i need another beer...


valen1828
Date: 11/06/16
Time: 09:51:35
Post #: 18012467

Entry exits can be as simple as following a line crossing the price line . ie an average of some sort . different time frames and averages will move this around somewhat so is best finding what suits your time frames and what works best percentge wise for success to how you read your own market rules and guidelines .

I follow the blue forty day linear line in my charts but this is not rigid ruling as end of day trade for both entry exit as i scan round this linear trend . ie you want roughly a short term trade you need your indiction be shorter term where you don't swing in out to much like maybe a day trader will but you want stay with trend for as long as possible before the market throws up something .

ie a top short term where you may sit out and look for entry again . ie if you look at pml chart just follow the blue line it could be the green line as in speckledjim etc and watch for cross of the price line for entry exit .

Looks simple but is harder to execute . Now all lines will cross again the price line at some point . So theroy is the further your indication is from the price line the more tendency the stock will pull back to this price line at some point and cross .

This is where i lose trend with indication and have change if im going hold . ie i need longer indication or swap to fundamentals perhaps? eeeeeeeeeeeek .

Now because i have tendency for entry towards bottoms i need my trends be giving me support . ie wait for longer term trend lines to cross also for added security the trend had changed .

You may even use a different indication here . Like i use the trix which is tripple smoothed average but one of its supposed strengths is picking market bottoms . you could use rsi or many others out there .

But sticking with having longer term indication also crossing gives a bit of strength to the chart and the physiological battle you will have . Same could be with the top but here if your short term you want lock in the gain and treat those battles with reward find the new stock etc maybe .

Hope that helps . But if you go simple like kmac points out and you get rewards percentage wise what ever coin flipping your doing a success rate round fifty percent should be ok to make money from .

ie picking fifty percent stocks right . Some people have this much higher to there credit . The great Fib never run that high a percentage from memory but gee could the tips come through and stay above that percentage overall


TraderGT
Date: 11/06/16
Time: 14:45:31
Post #: 18013614

SMOKE SIGNALS

These are my views, just a few!

Buy signals

1. - This is the best smoke signal for me.........You ever seen a stock that always has plenty of sellers in the market depth but anything at Market gets snapped up for days or weeks but the SP doesn't move.......that's the kinda play I like to enter!

2. - The volume indicator - Abnormal volume - You see Volume increase to different levels that a smoke signal that something is up, that's when you re-check your charts and FA for clues!

3. - The obvious one of some large on market buyers, however you need to be careful with this signal.....make sure you aren't getting in to late!

4. - Broker data - Use of Broker data can be a good tool......however Broker aren't always right! So don't take brokers buying and retail selling as a smoke signal. Just remember many STT tips have had brokers selling and us buying and them buying back higher! haha.

5. - You can create your own smoke signal - HOW you ask? - Research is a powerful tool! You may find a seriously undervalued stock and share that knowledge. I created smoke signal begins

Look at the likes of @Freehold, @forrestfield, @Sector Lead, @952i, @TheGladiator, @minoil, @strauss, @john435,@Anton Chigurh, @FullMoonFever and I have probably missed others.

I can tell you from experience Researching for "diamonds in the rough" is often and long and difficult task, I'm sure the above would agree there is no magic tricks to finding value just time consuming hard work!


Sell signals

1. - A stock that has already moved and has a stacked buy side I.E. a lot of BIG buy orders........that's your smoke signal to sell.

2. - Excessive ramping and Ten's of HC posters coming out of the woodwork on a stock......if you go to buy they are likely selling there shares to you....

3. - Volume for no SP increase....likely the stock has supply and it's the smoke signal to exit to return lower or move on.


Hope your all having a lovely long weekend!

I look forward to others commenting on this topic


Sector Lead
Date: 11/06/16
Time: 17:57:49
Post #: 18014305

SMOKE SIGNALS

I agree with your volume smoke signals (yr pts 1,2 and 3 together), and we have been experimenting with it this year. I think along with volume, OBV is important too. Larger buys than sells.

So far, I think it's worth looking closely even if a company volume spikes on news, and doesn't hold highs, even drops back, as so many that volume spike off bottoms have a lot of stales to initially work through. If they churn for a few weeks without dropping, can be a good time to enter.

One other smoke signal I look at is director/SSH changes (in or out). Director appoints are worth looking closely at, and I noted Fib used to be a master at putting the jigsaw together in past. So when I read a director/ board change, always look into background and you can get some early insight by joining dots.
*For sellers, a CFO sudden exit might be the opposite/ a warning.

Have written prior about large forced holders (SSH) creating opportunities for otherwise fundamentally sound businesses, for us small guys to get in. Past examples were Lion Gold out of UML and Sprott out of RMS.


FullMoonFever
Date: 11/06/16
Time: 19:35:45
Post #: 18014725

Will try combine a couple of things here.

I'm not great at the entry / exits myself most of the time or always reading smoke signals....kinda like a few others have posted as well. Prob why my tips % is just avg....sometimes to early, sometimes too late...lol

But what TGT & SL have covered def make the list in what I try to think about as well but I have started to try remove some subjective elements and trying to find a relatively clear cut unemotional TA point to provide some straight discipline.

Sort of like @Freehold said about the trend line...break that and out....simple.

Fortunately in some ways, I work full time and trade / invest part time and treat this current period as a kind of apprenticeship in most ways to iron out bugs, learn as much as possible, test diff thinking / strategies and leverage off the gurus of the HC community so that when comes the time to ratchet it up a notch in the future....I have much more confidence in my methods.


.....................


Love the "community" (and banter) on HC and as per one definition "the condition of sharing or having certain attitudes and interests in common".....helps provide the check and balance sometimes on a trade or thought process. If I'm looking at something I will generally have a quick skim of the threads to get their vibe and try find something I may have missed myself in research and always check in on the STT as well as so many others here share their thoughts, experiences and skills. Obviously, this is all in conjunction to my own research.

Same goes that if I'm researching one stock or sector and something else pops up in the googling etc then I try to remember to maybe drop a post on that stock with what I may have found...just as an fyi for them....even if I don't hold.

So....the unemotional entry / exit - smoke signals....here are 5 stocks I just grabbed off SL's Zinc list purely as examples.

Whilst I use other styles / charts for various views, I am trying to hone the Heiken-Ashi further and simplify it down as a visual to dig at certain points for entry / exit & trends. Two similar but slightly diff HA charts below on each stock...same indicators though. I look at both as kind of an overlay of each other.

Std HA with Avg True Range Stops (blue & yellow line) & HA as EIS OHLC bars (which are coloured to encompass MACD & 13 day EMA) with another overlay that prompts poss entry / exit points via arrows. I am testing and using the ATR breaks by the candles and the trend arrows with the other indicators to try get in on a trend and stay in longer or get out...no questions no emotions once a change happens.

Anyway, AMI, HRR, IBG, PNX & RVR with highlighted corresponding areas for my smoke signals

Have a good long weekend, those that have one






















tradesurfer
Date: 11/06/16
Time: 23:05:39
Post #: 18015430

Hi all,

Have not done a long post on here for awhile...

Im all TA and will base all my buys for ST plays on that.

I also dont Pip trade anymore as i find this to time consuming and to be honest for risk/reward factor not worth it.. Rather play Swings/ST holds and now my longest hold ever SRT and MNE which will test me

So first up i scope hot stocks that have been mentioned 100s of x on the Hc DT and appear in the top 5 most discussed stocks for a few days. But they must fit a certain citeria..
#Bullish sector
#Low Mcap
#Low amount of shares
#Decent management
#Most important an upcoming catalyst to generate FOMO

I never fomo or chase as i know they will come back and give myself a wink while the Dts bail on boredom lol... I will have these at all times on one of my screens watching each day for my signal which im very patient with...

I will provide example below..

Smoke/Buy signals...

I keep this very simple as i believe most overcomplicate this area with too many factors regarding candles/ indicators and various other factors.. Anyone can manipulate a candle on close plain and simple hence why i dont tend to hunt my buys precisely on these..Vwap can be useful for this style...
#volume is the most important thing to understand..
#than the spread ..

Below is a chart that will highlight my approach with 2 different charts... Posted both these in there threads before they moved as these are simple but rewarding setups...
BUX below..
Day 1. 8.9c -13c= 4.1c spread on 5.09m vol close 10c
Day 2. 10.5-9c =1.5c spread on 2.47m vol close 9.5c
Day 3. 9.5c-8.5c=1c spread on 2.7m vol close 8.7c
Day 4. 9c-8c =1c spread on 1.4m vol close 8c
Day 5. 8.2-7.8c=.04c spread on 749146 close 8c

Notice the spread decreasing each day while day 5 spread and volume gone also coming off the trend line and if we look to the left we see 7.8c from early march was the area to watch... If one was watching they also provided a hint they placed a large sell @ 8.1c after the small volume under 8c once no more volume came it was removed.....



Next day follwed with 2.5m vol and closed 9.5c... Hit 14c friday
Basic set up with just using 2 principles..

SCI below my Fav chart atm...
Another hot stock that flew up with a Lith Ann traders pushed this hard hit 13c from 3c the day before....
Basic set up..
Same theory spread and volume slowed down after the intial peak took a bit longer than BUX but gave a few signals..
1.You will see the day before had touched 4c on 2.7m vol now this day had 1 pip less spread and only could be pushed down to 4.1c on 1.2m vol... BINGO... Entry ... next day hit 5.9c.....

2.May fav of all volume dropping right off the previous last 3 days and this time they could not push the price down any lower than previous area. Also look at the amount of volume in Zone 1 we had decent volume now in zone 2 virtually nothing Of note they closed it on its low to try test the next day but buyers were waiting and my trigger was dbl the previous days vol and a break above 5.1c with the yellow line my trigger buy @ 5.2c...

3.also gave a signal this time they tried to back test the previous break area of 5.6c what followed was lack of volume and closing off its low with some strength..



Also Vwap was very handy gave a few clues...



Notice the increase each day.... Since yellow line....

Exit signals will do tomoz...


minoil
Date: 12/06/16
Time: 13:46:18
Post #: 18016729

Smoke signals............some good ones there, GT..............
your first point, lots of sellers etc.............a typical case that myself and @Klue are watching VERY closely...........AJC........the sell side is being stacked with dubious orders, to the extent it is forcing the hand of sellers, making the stock look very weak.........somebody is collecting !!
other smoke signals.............
a "for sale" sign from the company.........usually wording in the quarterly that they are seeking new opportunities..........
management buying on market...........be careful, not all directors are that bright !
substantial holding notices from well known traders or deal makers
an appointment of a corporate advisor
abnormal volume........in that a large buyer takes what is available in one hit, rather than waiting it out
broker data...........remember, its not necessarily "the" broker thats trading, it could just be a client, but, its a valuable tool

as for selling.........i agree.........robust chatter and posting is an alarm bell for me.......i try to avoid getting excited and helping a posters' sell order get filled...........cos it does happen !