RoE, You said FLT was ~ 20% undervalued at $43 and you had...

RoE,

You said FLT was ~ 20% undervalued at $43 and you had conservative fair value around $48.00.

Since the market update you have twice said it's a $45 stock.

Am I right thinking your $45 call is your new conservative fair value after the 4% downgrade?

You thought the market was crazy undervaluing FLT by ~ 20% at $43 when you then had conservative fair value around $48.00

And if $45 is your new conservative fair value that would mean FLT at $41 would be ~ 20% undervalued. With the share price currently at $34 or ~ 20% under ~ 20% undervalued I was thinking about your advice about only buy stocks that are >25% undervalued and have come to the conclusion that is why FLT should surely be up today.

On the other hand if $45 is your new fair value call then you have dropped your valuation by ~ 15% after the 4% downgrade. You appeared surprised that they market dropped the share price ~ 20% after the market update yet if $45 is your new fair value call then you did ~ the exact same thing. This is worthy of respect if true as that is exactly what the market has done. The difference between the markets current value and yours are off a little but maybe you forgot to carry the one.

Of course you could clear all of this up by simply telling everyone why it's a $45 stock instead of just saying it is.

Another thought I have is that you mentioned you bought FLT at $5 and $28 and since this time the share price has travelled well above both your earlier conservative fair value around $48.00 and ~ 20% undervalued at $43 calls. Admitting this was over a year ago but since you still hold stock I am thinking you decided not to sell because you believed it was still under fair value at the time.

I am only just starting to learn about how complex life is so I think I understand that even if company A was worth X 12 months ago doesn't mean it's worth X today. So with that in mind, it appears you keep lowering your value for FLT over the past 12 months from what was close to $60 down to $45 today and yet you continue to have a buy sentiment even though clearly keep dropping your value of the company.

I know you hate crackhead chartists like myself but even the most simple and pretty line on a screen would have saved you 12 months of having to come up with new fair and conservative values for this company if you sold on June 3 2014 when the silly little trend broke.

"Logically you can only make money when you bet against the crowd"  - RoE

Personally I believe the exact opposite and ancient history appears to agree with me.