short sales data is peaking...., page-8

I'd become increasingly worried if it crossed 0.450 and headed sharply to 0.500. It would become a big problem for the banks if it got up to the similar rate in 2008 of 0.550.

I'm prepared for the market to fall another 10%. I don't think it will because the present situation is very different to 2008. I visited the US in March of this year from West to East Coast and what I saw was an economy bottiming out. I also live in Berlin and although most managers I know are forecasting recessionary growth for the next two quarters here, they don't envisage that the downturn will be that deep or as long.

Just look at the growth in trade between Europe and the US.
Trade in Goods with Europe

The U.S. imports about 434 billion dollars worth of European goods a year during robust times (2008 and prior to).

In 2009, this fell to 331 billion as the credit crisis bit.

In, 2010 it rose to 380 billion.

In, 2011 the US is on track to import about 400 billion and perhaps return to 430 billion levels in 2012 as their economy improves.

This will go a long way to reducing the impact of any European recession, which is predicted to last 2 quarters over 2011/2012.