Thanks for all your replies especially viney402 Lefevre HAW323...

Thanks for all your replies especially viney402 Lefevre HAW323

ASX short positions are reported at http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt I think it is quite a useful tool and look at it often.


Lefevre and Viney - You said the coal price should be around $160 to $185 p/t also cost of production to be around $110 p/t .. Has BTU released any estimates regarding these numbers - mine was a wild guess .. (not very professional)
HAW323 – regarding the makeup of the registry, I wouldn’t think super funds would be investing in BTU as they are still primarily a mining exploration company, they aren’t really a producer yet. The numbers they are producing at the moment would be too small for superfunds to be interested in at the moment, perhaps when Buller gets up and running they might. If there were any funds involved I agree that they would sold down to reduce their risk ratings. Another thing, with BTU falling out of the ASZ 200 it would have a major effect on their margin ratios – probably dropping from 40% to something like 20% .. this would also impact the share price ..

brings me to another point.

Some of BTU's reporting lately has been a bit sloppy in my opinion, eg: Ceasing to be Substantial Holder dated 9 Apr doesn't even show what percentage of movement and net change on their registry, just a whole heap of buys, sells and stock returns. They didn’t even fill in all the boxes. A friend of mine sent an email but to my knowledge hasn’t got a reply yet.

For the share price to have a bit of a rally I would like Hamish to release some budgets for next year, not the usual ones of drilling costs, cash position, extra employee options (always seems to be plenty of those around the corner) but some forward sales numbers (2mt p/a) along with production cost and estimated coal pricing. With this information investors would be able to work out some pretty accurate forward share values ..

Just some thoughts

Good luck and happy trading to all !!