short position

Another terrible day for those who hold BTU !!

I was having a look at the short positions held in BTU and thought I might post it to see if there are any thoughts.

ASX 5th April 2013
BTU BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED FPO 710,202 697,247,997 .10
so 0.1% of the stock is shorted ..

That doesn't seem to be a great deal ..

If BTU was a gold prospector and they were factoring in a cost of gold being $1,200.00 p/oz then I could understand the down trend.

Newcastle spot Thermal coal is trading at around $104.00 p/ton
Btu has a forecast production of 2.2mil ton p/a so ($104 x 2.2m) = total revenues of $220m p/a
cost of production should be around $60p/t so ($40 x 2.2m) to a net profit of around $88m ..

If they trade at 10 times earning their market cap should be around about 880m and they are currently at 181m so therefore a market cap of 5 times where they are now or a share price of $1.25 once production has started.
(they should trade a little higher than 10 times, as we all know a miner paying a 10% yield is unheard of, however if BTU did start paying a div of that magnitude I would be very happy indeed !!)

Please comment on my numbers and assumptions, any input would be appreciated.

(Hot Copper should have a sentiment option saying "confused")