shine lawyers SHG strategic positioning, page-26

Nice work again Tim, first impressions of your numbers seem to fit with my expectations. Though as you seem to be implying we can't say for sure that this growth in WIP will necessarily be translated to cash profit. It is good to see supposed organic growth though of course - this is what we should expect from a law firm in a fragmented market with economies of scale - and the upside is that SHJ hasn't written any of this down in the recent past reports and of course the larger the growth the less impact any potential writedowns of WIP will have on paper profits. Great to see a large chunk of WIP being moved over to the current year as well - which is reinforcing my belief that SHJ are expecting some big settlements this year.

Stayer:
"I have been sneaking a few -getting a bit harder to buy- I wonder if news imminent - mark evans u posted on 13th of sept re pelvic mesh imminent -perhaps??"

Yep well today's rise shows the upside of low liquidity. Let's be honest - SHJ volatiilty and low liquidity is probably one of the worst things about the stock - it's as illiquid as one of those speculative mining exploration stocks that may be in administration in six months time. Still the liquidity bites both ways and I'm confident its still well undervalued.. Good to see some gaping up today as it rewards those who stay in the stock for the med-long term.

I wonder if news imminent - mark evans u posted on 13th of sept re pelvic mesh imminent -perhaps??"

Yeah well mate it's hard to say but I would expect to know the rough numbers of a settlement in the next few months or sooner. That's the thing here - it could well settle tommorow ( or the 8th for example - you can do a federal law events and document search at https://www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P/NSD1590/2012/actions ) or around a inerlocutory hearing or similar or it may take to January.

So what am I basing these time estimates on? :

-Duration of similar class actions
- J&J, who own ethicon, have stated in their recent financial reports they expect a judgement ( or settlement) in 2018 ( just google J&J reports for this one )
- Other articles that give an estimate of 12 months or less from the conclusion of the trial, which occured in Febuary.  eg
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-...n-considered-after-pelvic-mesh-report/9600286
-numerous other sources such as SHJ customer client support themselves ( a bit sneaky this one so I won't go into detail, nothing illegal or unethical of course, just to say that the shine website has a client support live chat function and they have the number of the pelvic mesh dept - though to be honest not a whole lot of detail was divulged other than what I could find from public sources)

-Keep in mind that SHJ may plan on settling next month for example, but they would never divulge this infomation to anyone as it puts them at a disadvantage when negotiating with the defendant. They could be, for example, playing hard-ball and bluffing that they will hold out and except the judges decision ( won't happen, but it's a threat and a high risk/reward for shine) so they won't let any info out on a possible settlement if they can help it.

So basically I'm expecting something in terms of a settlement preliminary announcement before or around december ( not a definite conclusion and shine won't get the cash yet (WIP and disimbursements but the outcome is pretty much locked in once both parties agree publicly to something.)

Selling now is risky imo, because due low liquidity as seen today, when a news release comes out ( check the federal law case search -should be first point of release) nobody will get any shares without paying to cross some pretty large gapping upwards.

Also, why sell now? - if you have been holding at these prices or similar you are basically paying for a company that has done all the work ( 40 -50m WIP and disimbursements) but basically hasn't billed the client yet. Not wise imho, since these cases always seem to settle. Just look at similar judgements against ethicon and j&j overseas... I'm holding and waiting as patiently as I can