I think Shell is putting in a bid to flush out all other...

I think Shell is putting in a bid to flush out all other interested parties. This offer will not be the final price. If Shell would get 50% or more of AOE, it can have control over AOE to stop it selling down assets or taking in other joint venture partners (looks like Petro China is more than just interested). Otherwise Shell may have to let AOE go. After failing to get Orgin, I think Shell will pay anything to get Arrow.
In the next day or two, there will be spikes when the poor shorters cover their exposures.
Buy on any weakness later this week is my strategy.