From looking at their ann reports, it seems Qi are very dependent on their human papilloma virus (HPV) molecular test - it represents no less than 25% of revenue. They now face competition on it and patents relevant to it are soon to expire. Thus Quantiferon would give them a new product line with good patent protection as well as diversification. I imagine it would have greater potential than the HPV test (the latter is done on women to predict cervical cancer risk) and also better prospects for gaining more patents in the future. In their latest quarter results they describe the acquisition as 'an important strategic move' using bold type, and their sales of HPV in the US as 'soft'. In light of this, would it reasonable to think they might make a higher offer. Obviously, the dollar has gone up but this isn't so bad when considers the acquisition includes 20 mill AUD and the present deal is 'accretive' after one year. The original Qi press release on the acquisition quotes AR as calling QFN 'breakthrough technology' (they didn't call it this in their announcement to us) and then saying 'as part of Qi we will be able to accelerate our growth much faster'. It seems odd he would say this before the deal has gone through, perhaps he was hoping we wouldn't read it (ie without the deal growth would still accelerate, but less fast).
CST Price at posting:
$3.39 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
