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18/08/17
14:03
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Originally posted by mmoore1957
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HRR''s funding package has been approved and now HRR can concentrate on getting the operation up and running. So I am now interested to make some assessment of where the share price ("SP") will eventually get to. Normally SPs of companies at this point in their life cycle don't gain any real traction until mine development is complete and commercial production in imminent. The market likes to see a successful realization of the major assumptions incorporated into the BFS before getting too excited. In my forecast I assume commercial production is declared on 1/1/19. So SP forecast:
My Assumptions:
1. Minelife = 10 yrs
2. Other assumptions in my previous thread
3.Average PAT Yr 1 to Yr 5 = A$82m
4. Average EPS Yr 1 to Yr 5 = 3.4cps
5. PE ratio = 10 (Equals the minelife)
The Share Price Forecast:
1. SP = EPS x PE = 3.4 x 10 = A$0.34
Hence the theorectical SP for HRR is A$0.34 ON THE CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS. If Zn prices fluctuate significantly from current levels then numbers will change significantly. Also if the minelife is increased through succesful exploration then we could apply a higher PE. I would expect this SP to be achieved sometime in mid 2019 after probably two quarterly reports at full commercial production.
The above is my theory only and whether it is anywhere near the mark, only time will tell. SO PLEASE DYOR
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If you think the inherent SPP 34c and they sold the majority of shares to themselves at 7c.
Then they sold themselves the bulk of the share at a 485 % odd discount.
Really? Even I'm not alleging that type of behaviour/incompetence.
In fact you're implying that when they shopped the project about they couldn't find anyone to offer them capital at less than that discount.