TGZ is sitting at 1.16(b) - 1.19(s) with minimal volume today.
Understandable given that no-one really trades it in Australia. GRY is obviously linked to the TGZ share price.
However, looking at what has happened to the mid tier ASX listed producers today who have a primary listing on the ASX we're looking at 8-12% moves. TGZ should especially benefit due to it being a higher cost producer exposed to Euro (which will collapse now).
Thus, if we think that overnight on the TSX that TGZ moves c. 12% that would equate to c. A$1.32. This in turn would value GRY at A$0.223 per share, a 27% premium to the current price.
I am up to the gunnels with GRY now so can't add more. However, I think that there will be a good arb come Monday, even if a discount to the TGZ SP remains.
And that doesn't take into account a second bidder, which given the move in POG, the possibility of which may have just increased.
Cheers
John
GRY Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
