Some good detective work here, thanks all, I normally read the Solomon Islands newspaper but dropped the ball here.
With regards the stock price: well the quarterlies, as well as not being very inspiring, seemed to hide a few mysteries which had better come out in the end-of-years.
I would say that ALD needs to run TWO really good quarters to build back market support. At this stage I would invest some blind optimism in the following:
1) the gold price has hit 1750. For me (if no one else) this is an important psychological barrier. It means that if Allied gets its raw costs below 1000 then we start getting close to my magic figure of 500 clear per ounce
2) We've hit a long term resistance level so surely things can't get any worse. OK that's naive. I have a saying: "if you think the price can't get any lower, plot it on a log scale". But still, I would gain confidence if the price held above 120p (I have to admit I'm a bit over stocks that are largely traded on other exchanges. For me, next time, it's a barrier to entry).
3) It would seem that the "threshold of pain" is about a week. Any disaster that stops production for less than a week, they don't report. Two or three weeks, that seems to come out. So far, though it's clear there have been some low level disasters, there have been no large scale stuff ups (that we know of yet!!), and it's now half way through the quarter.
Here's the short version (and I know I'm repeating myself a bit from previous posts):
For the next two quarters we need
at least 40koz each quarter $500 clear profit per oz no magic black holes for the money to disappear into.
Why two quarters? Because for one quarter they might just get lucky. Two might start looking like they really have their act together.
The impossible dream is that they could fund the sulphide expansion from profit without resorting to a C.R.
Sorry zog, I probably just made you choke on your coffee.
ALD Price at posting:
$1.73 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
