share price, page-11

morning jg,

I can see why you thought I was having a go at you back a thread or so - but I wasn't. My comments were about traders in general.

just to clarify ----


re. "Who wouldn't take profit of 6 or 7 cents?"

1. Chris Morris, who I think feels the stock will be priced in dollars in the not too distant future.

2. Any investor who has researched well enough to be in and confident of a similar expectation to morris.


More to the point - who would take a profit of 6 or 7 cents - small traders who in the end almost never make any money.
Sorry to sound hard, but that is the way of life for traders - until they either finally wake up and either become investors or get out of the game altogether."

1. morris - obvious - he increased, he didn't sell any

2. Any investor with similar views to morris - obvious also.

3. My comment about small traders -- this was my thinking --


High risk portfolios are the best performing portfolios - there is ample evidence for this.
Why is this so? - Because what makes high risk portfolios work so well is that they are the portfolios that have multibaggers in them - it is those multiples that make the difference rather than the small losses cut or the small profits taken.

And that is the key - not to take small profits.

The rules are this - cut the losses early and let the profits run.

So getting in at 13 or 14.5 and out at 19 (time of my post) - less tax - results in a small profit. Yes, I know people might have ended up with the same amount of shares that they started with.
But it still is true - it is taking a very small amount of money off the table - and probably not tax effective either.

There are times to take a profit and times to not take a profit.

For people who were/are in wfm - this is definitely NOT a time to sell any shares imo.

wfm is presently very hopeful - it is NOT a done deal yet - we need to wait to see the actual performance - but if it performs as it looks like it should - then the worst thing to do for a high risk portfolio is to get out of wfm at the moment - because it looks like it should be a multibagger.

You also talked about me being on the other side???
I don't know what you mean.

My position is this

I have had a small holding for quite a while - I don't even know how much - either $10k or $20k I reckon - I buy this amount of a stock if I want to keep it in my attention span.
It keeps it on my screen so I see it many times a day and get a feel for it's personality.

I watch until I am sure the thing is a definite goer - and I enter after 3 boxes are ticked

Cultural analysis
Fundamental analysis
Technical entry

And that is the priority.

All three must line up - and so far wfm is not there for me to enter as a main part of my portfolio (which would make probably 5 to 10m shares).

My reason for not being in yet is that although wfm 'looks' good - it has not proved itself yet.

Whereas my other companies actually have the revenue flowing well. So it would be pure folly to get out of stocks that 'are doing it' and into a stock that 'should do it'. I hope this makes sense.

I think wfm has got the goods, but you must get the receipts first.
Also another complication is that this method of selling advertising - may NOT be cross cultural - it probably will be but it may not be. Only time will tell that.

Yet another complication is the liquidity of this particular company - it will take time to build a solid position without driving up the market much.

There will be a window - and soon I suspect where all the boxes are ticked but the market will still be somewhat asleep to it - and if I am very lucky there will be a few sell orders that I can take out if the god's of shares are willing - otherwise I will miss out.

In short I believe it is better to buy a share at between 20 and 25c that is guaranteed of success than to buy in at 13 or 15 when it is still not clear - at least when we are talking in millions of shares - 5-10m is a hell of a lot of shares to get rid of if you decide that it is not going to do what you want.

I hope this clarifies my thoughts to you.

have a great day

pinto