He did say long term, the business would have to grow quite a lot to get there, but big picture Telstra is 20x our size, and we can compete with them as equals in our products.
There is big moves happening at the moment with mobile, who knows where the pieces will fall, we might be in a position to pick-up some bargains, in 10-15 years we could easily be a much bigger buisness.
e.g.
TPG is going to be operating its mobile division as a loss-leader, and Vodafone has been getting close to running at breakeven during the good times, i pretty sceptical that both divisions will survive.
If TPG mobile division wins, Vodafone will want help, and we are in the best position to provide it, TPG would likely be blocked by ACCC from any takeover/merger with Vodafone.
One thing i noticed about Telstra results yesterday, is that there fixed margins dropped from 31% to 16%, if that happened to TPG their EBITDA would be cut by 40%, because they are so heavily weighted towards consumer.
If Vodafone mobile division wins, TPG's whole business will get get hurt by declining cash-flows, they could easily push their debt to the limit and still not have a competitive mobile network, and they have to carry the costs of spectrum even if they have little revenue from it.
Maybe TPG will be the ones under pressure looking to sell off divisions to reduce debt, maybe they would sell us iiNet... and we could still do something with Vodafone on a 10-15 year timeframe.
VOC Price at posting:
$2.33 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held