Bookend makes a valid point about the reduced harvest from 2017...

Bookend makes a valid point about the reduced harvest from 2017 to 2020. However, TFC earns most of its revenue from establishment fees. See chart on page 12 of FY2016 presentation. Product sales (including Mt Romance) for FY2016 were $29.9m whereas establishment fees were $95m.

So sales of the harvested products and management fees from the harvest will reduce to 2020. I believe this will be swamped by the larger impact of establishment fees (assuming a continuation increased plantings), annual management fees increasing because plantations are increasing (see trend on graph on page 12) and a commencement of performance fees due to the to improved survival rates (and oil price way in excess of the PDS forecast) producing returns to growers above the PDS forecasts.

Nevertheless, the market is currently voting with its feet.