I think there is one clear factor that can explain why the share price has fallen: mgt's FY17 guidance was lower than 'Mr Market' anticipated.
FY16 Cash EBITDA = $62.2m
+25% growth = +$77.8m....lets call it ~$79-$80m
Using Cannacord as an example, pre-result FY17 EBITDA was forecast at $86.4m. So that's a high single-digit shortfall which will have a negative leverage effect on FY17 Cash NPAT expectations as depreciation expense should be a bit higher and interest expense should remain pretty steady following the refinance.
Also 2017 acceptances of the buyback were lower than 2016 which means TFC will need to win more wood in the open tender, lowering visibility of earnings.
I also think FY17 could represent a high-water mark for group earnings over the next half decade. Look at the 4 April presentation Slide 6 regards scheduled heartwood harvesting (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160404/pdf/4368gkypwjdgnc.pdf )...Heartwood harvests trend down with the 2019 harvest scheduled to bring in 142t of heartwood vs 326 in 2016. Can price increases for new plantation investments offset this? What about bringing forward harvests to smooth supply....possible but TFC first needs to buy them from investors.
And last but not least, valuation: $80m EBITDA - $12m depreciation - $27m net interest - 30% tax rate = ~$29m Cash NPAT. EFPOWA = 446m shares (don't forget those warrants, still well in the money ). Cash PER = $1.60 / 6.5c = ~25x.
Yes I agree with broker comments that there is massive underlying value in the TFC stock and like a broken record argue this is a terrific superannuation investment, but in the near term I would not be surprised to see the share price decline further rather than go up.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.60 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
