I tend to agree with your valuation. $300mil was always an ambit claim using the maximum potential damages possible. 10 - 20% for a winning argument sounds fair. There was always the possibility that the court would have a more balanced view. Not a clear cut resolution considering the time taken and again, your point is taken.
$30mil would leave POH with $20mil in cash if it went ahead with the distribution of cash to shareholders. Not a bad cash balance for a small company worth $40mil. Though I would add that a $50mil award would put an entirely different and improved situation forward for POH.