What this and many other analysts fail to grasp is that sometimes a commodity that's fallen from lofty highs to lows and is written off by the consensus can see a large rise fooling the herd and all the analysts with it
Iron Ore is the prime example of this falling from $120/t+ to lows of the mid 30s 12mths ago at which point nearly every analyst was calling it a sell due to the supply glut and reduced demand
And yet here we are and Iron Ore is $80/t+ a move few saw coming
Oil is headed a lot higher for 3 reasons IMO
1. Demand, most are not taking into account the exponential growth of the Chinese and Indian consumers, the 2 most populous nations on the planet with some of the lowest car ownership per capita and lowest barrel of oil consumption per capita when compared to the West
2. Supply sure there's a lot of talk about shale coming back on stream quickly but what about the Trillion plus in Cap Ex and development spending that was shelved following the oil price crash and that's what it was a crash
3. Saudi state oil float the $2Trillion dollar plus Gorrila in the room that no one is factoring in, how much pain are the Saudis prepared to take to bump up the value of this IPO? A few billion? Chump change in the scheme of things. There's a reason why the Saudis are so keen to get OPEC in agreement
