SFX Value Analysis, page-3

I agree with the above sentiments. The analysis by 2ic seems on the surface to be thorough, balanced and well informed, however when it came to the important stuff like the numbers and an assessment of whether this project offers enough 'fat' to an investor, the analysis doesn't seem to appreciate what an NPV figure is.  

As far as a value proposition regarding speculative investments goes, I think that SFX offers rarely seen upside compared to downside at this juncture, not only for share investors, but more so for corporate investors looking at the project. 

Those selling here are most likely affected by the human condition of trauma towards pain (the pain of seeing the price drop day after day and not being able to rationalise it, and at some point the trauma just gets too much and they need to bail). An analysis such as that of 2ic has no doubt exacerbated said phenomenon for some. Sellers at these levels are not looking at this project fundamentally.

For many reasons this is one of those rare buy opportunities that comes along because of a convergence of unusual circumstances - the biggest factor here is the over hang  threat of a large cap raising (unlikely to be needed in my opinion). But even if that scenario eventuated, it would mean much higher prices than this would be warranted post raise. 

Don't be surprised that a lot of games are being played in the background,  we're talking about a half billion dollar plus deal here.  I don't think it's really being grasped by the average investor. The payback figures on this project are significant. This isn't a deal being done based on the share price (unless a hostile takeover comes in,  and even then it is likely, on the above basis,  to spark significant competitive tension between other corporates looking for 100% or just wanting a 30% slice) . The price action in the end will all revolve around the project numbers. And the numbers 2ic put forward are a mix and match of complex financial numbers extracted from a mix of sources which when all combined don't give a representative view of the situation post the increased capex due to double counting of costs and other misalignments.