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Originally posted by Bonnie73
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Interesting thoughts Longreach. Does anyone have a top 20 shareholder list that's up to date? I was looking in the annual report where it would normally be published but couldn't see it. My sense is that there is a large proportion of shares in SFG which are tightly held or can't be sold (+/- 50% to directors including Nissui, and then maybe another 30+% of holders with over 1 million shares that have no intention of selling any time soon). I suspect this stock is still mostly unknown/under the radar for some very wealthy SMSF's but once they get wind of the story, (as I was lucky enough through a friend of a friend who knows a friend who knows the directors about a year ago) they will want in because its just such a great story. Maybe they've been waiting for it to drop back but as it doesn't then fear of missing out comes in and they will pay what they have to pay for a piece of the action. Always supply and demand - people now wanting significant volume but only small players selling so the price goes up. When I put in a bid for 800K shares back in June at 8c I caused the price to jump by almost 1c. Volumes have still been relatively small. I suspect it will pause around 20c until next substantive announcement but then charge again.
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Agree with most of this but looking at rough figures, 300m capex for stage 1, to get to anywhere near a palatable d/e ratio of say 65-70% for banks excluding whatever portion NAIF might stump up the equity contribution will need to be north of 100m. I would think they would prefer to do this in one cr rather than two. My guess is this will be post lease being set in stone to give them the best shot at a decent cr
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