September 2018 - State of PSD

Not much has really changed since the last summary thread - August 2018 - State of PSD.

During August the company implicitly acknowledged that construction (as a reasonable person would consider the term) will start next year.  The NSK deal completed with FIRB approval and so forth and the company's results indicated that the company has a burn-rate of about $25 million per year with about $25 million cash on hand.  The company's expression of interest process is now underway - with EOIs being assessed.  This should move us towards a more clear budget.

Points of concern:

• AAMI Group's financing for Legune Station
• "Construction" announcement still hasn't been made - building can only occur in dry season which runs from April to November - sure some smaller tasks can be done, but nothing extreme
• Cash - we need about $300 million to do this thing.
• Technically speaking, the company is still in it's "bankable feasibility stage" and hasn't yet made it's "final investment decision".  Make of that what you will.

This is what I would expect to happen next:

1. An announcement at some point this month that AAMI Group have secured funding and will be exercising the option on Legune Station.
2. "Construction" starts in September - but they will be basic site-works things - there was discussion of a "hard set down area" made of compacted crushed gravel.
3. A bunch of funding is found over the next year, construction proper happens in the dry season of 2019 and 2020 (April to November)
4. Prawns grow in 2021
5. There is some kind of issue with yield in 2021 (guess - but something always goes wrong somewhere)
6. Phase 2 starts circa 2025.

In my circumstances I remain a hold.