GNX 2.38% 21.5¢ genex power limited

Hi Dan, Not sure where you got the 4 million per month - more...

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    Hi Dan,
    Not sure where you got the 4 million per month - more like between 1 and 1.3 million from a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the QLD Govt. Note that for both solar and pumped hydro, Opex is likely less than 10% of gross revenue.

    Regarding using Gas: Well, it produces carbon dioxide, and thus contributes to climate change. There may not be an explicit or implicit price on Carbon at the moment following the demise of climate change policy at the moment, but that won't necessarily be the case forever. Also, Gas is expensive, and in short supply since much of Australia's supply is being exported, so Opex is greater than for Solar or Hydro, especially if a Gas power plant is not required to run all of the time and sits idle.

    Why Pumped Hydro? Well, the increase in solar generation (both roof top and commercial generation plants) is likely to eventually be able to supply more power than is needed by the grid during daylight hours when weather is favourable (sunny). This is the "Duck Curve" phenomenon. Also, solar power cannot be used during evenings when power demand in the grid peaks. So there's a strong and increasing need to be able to store power for use in the evenings, and pumped hydro is one way (and the most mature technology) for doing this. For Genex, this means they can choose to store cheap solar power during the say and sell it at a higher price during the evening peak when power prices are generally several times what they are during the day (and daytime prices are only going to get lower).

    The pumped hydro facility will also allow Genex to participate in the market for "firm solar power contracts" in the commercial power market.

    Regarding finance: No-one, including NAIF, will lend money to Genex without a strong and credible business case, so you can be sure there is one. On the other hand, this is the utility business, so Genex will be aiming to generate strong and reliable revenues, but are never going to be a multi-bagger like a mining company striking gold.

    This presentation is a bit old, but gives a good overview of the Genex projects, including projected revenue from Stage 1 based on the PPA parameters. Also you might find this video about the Duck Curve interesting.
 
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