Sell Your Soul, page-71

Posts advocating shorts always attract some wrath from holders. As i wrote (see above) :
'Broke even on my original short opened 7 months ago (see above post) when SOL was $16.02. In hindsight I was fortunate to exit when i did. Since then changes have occurred.'

My current short opened at $18.88 and i should have shorted more at $19.oo. Since my post 3 weeks ago things have got worse for 3 of SOL's biggest assets yet SP has only fallen about 60 cents.

a) Building approvals have continued to fall sharply across the country. Commencements will obviously need BKW's products but revenue will slow substantially in 9 months time and I can't see anything that will cause residential to take off again.

b) SOL's biggest holding comprising over 40% of their assets is their 25.2% share of TPG. SP now under $6 and not far off its 12 month low and a fraction of the $12.70 of 8 months ago. Since my last post ACCC has denied roaming on Telstra's mobile network to the other telcos. TPG have more shares and huge capex over next 2+ yrs.

c) I expect NHC's phase 3 to be approved but coal price is down over 30% from 2 months ago and i expect it will bottom out around $70 and put a big dent into NHC's bottom line.

d) HHL. Too murky for me to make a forecast re future earnings/SP.

But don't let my pessimism stop buyers. Still waiting for someone to post why SOL is a stk worth buying/holding? $18.oo not too far away imo.