DSD, I agree that the drop in TPG should result in a bigger drop...

DSD, I agree that the drop in TPG should result in a bigger drop in the SOL price than has already occurred.

BUT

New Acland mines the Walloon Coal Measures which typically includes multiple thin seams. There are so many seams, so close together, that New Acland is a low strip ratio, low cost operation. Any inference that the New Acland expansion is going to be unprofitable would be going against all consensus forecasting. Your tour of the mine clearly gave you the wrong impression. New Acland was making money at the most depressed coal price (~$50/t AUD) so I think we'll be ok. At the moment they're back to making quite a profit (currently ~86/t). NHC have two low cost operations in New Acland and Bengalla which is where you want to be.

Exports from New Acland and Bengalla are thermal coal so i'm not sure there's any relationship to the price of iron ore? If you think coal prices are going to re-test 10 year lows, a short on NHC would be advisable.