I am looking at a long term fundamental perspective and know...

I am looking at a long term fundamental perspective and know very little about short term technical trading so you may well be right about the price movement in the next couple of months. I have just taken a look at the latest annual report and according to the balance sheet TPG makes up approx 50 percent of their total assets currently (which are worth 5.5 billion). However if New Hope appreciates strongly with the coal price (in addition to the more steady big investments like Brickworks) it should at least partially offset any potential big loss from TPG. I think a $14.50 price would be pretty compelling from a long term point of view.